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The ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open Masters is down to the final 16 players, and most of the favorites and top seeds are still alive. The tournament has gone one without a hitch from La Caja Magica despite the absence of injured superstars Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.

Four of the top 10 seeds have been eliminated, but only one of the top five favorites is gone. No. 6 seed Holger Rune was +1600 to win the title but lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third round. No. 3 seed Casper Ruud, No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime, and No. 9 Frances Tiafoe also lost earlier this week.

Let’s take a look at the updated ATP lines for the 2023 Mutua Madrid Open and some of the first-round odds at MyBookie.

Updated Mutua Madrid Open Odds and Picks | MyBookie Tennis Betting Preview

2023 Mutua Madrid Open
When: 25 April − 7 May, 2023
Category: ATP Tour Masters 1000 | WTA 1000
Where: Park Manzanares, La Caja Mágica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay / outdoor

Alcaraz Remains the Favorite

Carlos Alcaraz opened the tournament as the favorite and remains the top choice as the tournament enters the Round of 16. Before the tournament began, he was +100 to win the title, but now he’s -145 to be the last man standing on Sunday.

Alcaraz, who is now 25-2 on the season, faces No. 13 Alexander Zverev in the round of 16. Alcaraz beat Zverev in the finals of this event last year, but the German prevailed in the quarterfinals of the French Open.

If Alcaraz gets past Zverev, as expected, he will face the winner of the all-Russian matchup between No. 5 Andrey Rublev and No. 10 Karen Khachanov. Alcaraz is 2-0 against Khachanov but has never faced Rublev, the winner of the Monte Carlo Masters.

Rublev is now +1800 to win his second Masters tournament of the clay court season. He has won both matches in straight sets so far, and whoever makes the semifinal between Alcaraz, Zverev, Rublev, and Khachanov will face, at best, a No. 17 seed in the semifinals.

Tsitsipas Surviving

The No. 4 seed has the second-best odds to win it all, with Stefanos Tsitsipas at +450 on the updated odds. He started the Madrid Open at +900, but with seeded players Auger-Aliassime, Tiafoe, and Tommy Paul eliminated, his path to the semifinal is clear.

The problem for Tsitsipas has been breaking serve. He’s needed three sets to win both of his matches so far, dispatching wild card Dominic Thiem in a final-set tiebreak before beating No. 25 Sebastian Baez 6-3 in the third.

Tsitsipas is 22-6 on the season, and he will face unseeded players until at least the semifinals. In the semis, he could face No. 2 Daniil Medvedev or No. 8 Taylor Fritz.

Medvedev and Fritz on Collision Course

If not Tsitsipas at the bottom of the draw, it will likely be Medvedev or Fritz. Medvedev opened at +1200, and he’s now +600. Meanwhile, Fritz opened up at +3500 and is now +1200 to win in Madrid.

Medvedev won his first match in Madrid in straight sets and then knocked off Alex Shevchenko in three sets. He will face unseeded Aslan Karatsev in the round of 16 and either Fritz or Zhizhen Zhang in the quarterfinals.

Fritz hasn’t lost a set yet in this tournament and has taken two tiebreakers to reach the round of 16. He has never faced Zhang or Karatsev and is 0-1 against Medvedev, should they meet in the quarterfinals.

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Previous Betting News

The tennis calendar continues to charge toward the French Open but will head to the ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open Masters without two of the biggest names on tour. Five-time Madrid Open champion and the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, has been out since the Australian Open. Now, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic has also taken an injury and withdrawn from the Madrid Open after an early loss last week in Bosnia.

Their departures leave Carlos Alcaraz as a clear favorite and top seed this week. The young Spaniard may also emerge as the French Open favorite as well if neither Djokovic nor Nadal is able to recover in time to make it to Roland Garros next month.

The injury withdrawals, plus the 2022 retirement of Roger Federer, means this will be the first-ever Madrid Open not to feature the Big 3. The last time the event was held without Djokovic or Nadal was in 2002 when it was still played on the hard courts.

Let’s take a look at the ATP odds for the ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open and some of the first-round odds at MyBookie.

2023 ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open Odds, Picks, and Tennis Betting Analysis

2023 Mutua Madrid Open
When: 25 April − 7 May, 2023
Category: ATP Tour Masters 1000 | WTA 1000
Where: Park Manzanares, La Caja Mágica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay / outdoor

Alcaraz the Man to Beat

Alcaraz is a big favorite to repeat his 2022 Madrid Open title as he opens the tournament at +100. He is 23-2 so far in 2023 with three titles claimed, and he just steamrolled to the Barcelona Open title on clay with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The top seed has a pretty easy draw to the quarterfinals as well. He could face Alexander Zverev in a rematch of last year’s final in the round of 16, but the German has fallen to No. 16 in the world with a 10-11 record so far this season. A matchup with Np. 5 seed Andrey Rublev looms in the quarters, with the Russian having won the Monte Carlo title earlier this month.

Tsitsipas Getting Close

The 2023 season has been one of close calls for Tsitsipas, with an overall record of 20-6. However, he hasn’t won a title since a finals loss to Djokovic in the Australian Open and last week to Alcaraz in Barcelona. He is 6-2 on clay so far this season and reached the semifinals in Madrid last year.

Tsitsipas is in the bottom half of the draw and wouldn’t face Alcaraz again until the final. He won this event in 2019 and reached the finals at the French Open in 2021. Ranked No. 5 in the world and seeded No. 4, Tsitsipas is +900 to win in Madrid, the second-best odds after Alcaraz.

Looking at the draw, he does have a couple of early challenges, with 14-seed Tommy Paul as a possible early matchup. In the quarters, he could face No. 9 Frances Tiafoe or No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime, but neither is as accomplished on clay as Tsitsipas.

The Other Contenders

The next wave is led by No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev at +1200 to win it all, just ahead of Zverev and No. 6 seed Holger Rune at +1600. Rublev is +2800, and No. 3 seed Casper Ruud leads a group of players at +3500 to win the title.

Medvedev doesn’t have a great track record on clay, and he took last week off. The Russian lost to Rune in the quarterfinals of the Monte Carlo Open, and all four of his titles this season are on hard courts. A challenging matchup against former Madrid champion Andy Murray awaits in the second round, and Medvedev will have to navigate past Cam Norrie, Taylor Fritz, and possibly Tsitsipas to reach the finals.

Rune, Rublev, and Ruud have seen success on clay so far this year. Rune and Ruud are in the same quadrant and could face each other in the quarterfinals, while Rublev has a tough path with Alcaraz in his quad.

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With Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both turning back the clock, the start of the 2017 ATP Tour season has undoubtedly been one of the most surprising – and unpredictable – in recent ATP Tour memory.

Now, with the 2017 Mutua Madrid Open getting underway over the Cinco de Mayo weekend, tennis betting aficionados everywhere actually have only one ‘real’ question they need to answer when it comes to the prestigious lead-up event to the French Open.

Mutua Madrid Open Tennis Odds & Betting Picks

Can anyone beat ‘The King of Clay,’ on his favorite surface? Sure, both, World No. 1 Andy Murray and World No. 2 Novak Djokovic, will be in the field, but in reality, all roads to winning the championship will likely have to go through the inimitable Rafa!

Now, let’s find out if anyone can stop Nadal from bagging this year’s Mutua Madrid Open title.

Mutua Madrid Open

Date: May 7-14, 2017
Location: Madrid, Spain
Category: ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Surface: Clay

Mutua Madrid Open Odds

Analysis: Nadal, the fifth-ranked player in the world is a fantastic 29-5 on the season with two titles and two finals losses to Roger Federer at the Aussie Open and Miami. Rafa enters Madrid after recording victories on clay at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and Barcelona.

World No. 2 Novak Djokovic is off to a shaky 14-4 start coming into Madrid with one title, but the former World No. 1 enter Madrid after falling to David Goffin in the quarterfinals at Monte Carlo. Djokovic has also suffered a pair of losses to Nick Kyrgios this season while getting smacked around by Dennis Istomin in the second round at Australia.

Top Contenders

Andy Murray
Kei Nishikori
Dominic Thiem
Nick Kyrgios
David Goffin

Analysis: Murray is just 15-5 coming into Madrid and just doesn’t seem to have the confidence of being the world’s No. 1 player at the moment. Kei Nishikori has dropped down to eighth in the world and is just 15-6 this season with zero titles. World No. 9 Dominic Thiem is looking dangerous as he comes into Madrid with a solid 22-10 record and one title and World No. 20 Nick Kyrgios has been even more impressive in going 16-4 while beating Djokovic and World No. 19 Alexander Zverev twice apiece this season. World No. 10 David Goffin has compiled an impressive 24-9 record coming into Madrid while recording wins against Djokovic and Thiem at Monte Carlo.

The Pick

With Rafael Nadal playing on his best surface and looking a lot like the Rafa of five year ago, it’ kind of hard to go against the King of Clay at what is basically a home tournament in Madrid.

While Nadal isn’t t shoo-in he used to be to win every clay court event he enters, his recent wins on clay suggest that it will take a superhuman effort for anyone to beat Nadal for the title. I like Nadal to get the win in Madrid with my second and third picks to get the win going to David Goffin and Nick Kyrgios.

The Winner: Rafael Nadal